At the same time as Xi Jinping proposed the "energy revolution" at the APEC meeting, two "strategic goals" of China's energy with extremely high content were released.
One of them comes from the National Energy Administration. On November 9th, at the press conference held by the APEC News Center, the National Energy Administration specially elaborated the relevant energy strategies and targets formulated to realize the next “energy revolution”. Specifically, by 2020, China will control the total primary energy consumption to about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, the total coal consumption will be controlled at 4.2 billion tons, the proportion of coal and electricity consumption will fall below 62%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 15%, which aims to build 200 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity and 100 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity by 2020. At present, China's coal consumption accounts for 65.7% of primary energy consumption, and non-fossil energy consumption accounts for 9.8% of primary energy consumption.
The other is from a higher level. On November 12th, China and the United States issued a "Joint Statement on Climate Change and Clean Energy Cooperation", announcing China's climate change action after 2020. This is the first time that China has officially proposed that the peak of greenhouse gas emissions will come around 2030, and proposes that the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will increase from 15% in 2020 to around 20% in 2030.
One is the goal of 2020, and the other is the goal of 2030. The development of China's energy consumption in the past 20 years has specific quantitative targets.
The proposal of this joint statement once again established the key position of energy transformation in the national strategy. In 2013, China's non-fossil energy accounted for 10%, wind + light + nuclear power generation accounted for 4.6%, while Germany's non-fossil energy accounted for 17%, wind + light + nuclear power generation accounted for 28%. The benefits of wind power, photovoltaic, and nuclear power sectors are reflected in two levels: First, new energy operators will benefit from the launch of domestic and global carbon emissions trading markets. It is expected that the renewable energy quota system will be introduced at the end of this year or early next year, and then the domestic carbon emissions trading market will be launched to provide incremental income for new energy operators and directly increase net profit. Second, new wind power and photovoltaic will be added next year. The installed capacity may exceed expectations.
According to industry insiders, it is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics in China will be 19-20, 10-13 GW in 2014. With the further support of the policy and the potential subsidy reduction in the second half of next year, the wind power and photovoltaic industries are expected to usher in a new round. Grab the tide of installation, it is expected that the installed capacity is expected to reach 22-25, 14-17GW, respectively, an increase of 20%, 35%.
It is understood that traditional energy sources such as coal have a large pollution to the air. According to the emission of 2.6 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of standard coal, 0.028 tons of sulfur dioxide, 0.007 tons of nitrogen oxides, and 0.5 grams of smoke per kilowatt hour, each kilowatt hour is estimated. The coal consumption is about 333 grams. This means that for every three thousand kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic system, it can reduce the emission of 2.6 tons of carbon dioxide and other sulfides.
China's PV companies have been actively deploying distributed PV this year, hoping to get clean energy into thousands of households. The vigorous promotion of rooftop distributed photovoltaic systems will reduce the use of traditional energy sources, improve haze weather, and make "APEC Blue" a normal state.
"According to the energy plan that the country has already completed, China's non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption target in 2015 is 11.4%, and by 2020 is about 15%, superimposed on the target of this statement, it can be said that the country is short-term, medium-term, The long-term goal of clean energy consumption is becoming clearer,” said a power industry analyst at CITIC Securities (600030).
The analyst also said that from the perspective of fulfilling the commitment target, "the development of hydropower resources will reach the limit by 2030, and the annual increase of 7.2 GW of nuclear power will reach a higher level. Therefore, only resource endowment has a large space and security. More secure wind power and solar energy can effectively make up for this gap. Therefore, if the wind power and PV installed capacity increase in 2020-2030 will be adjusted to increase the annual average of 25GW, the gap will be reduced to zero and the emission reduction target for 2030 will be achieved. Basic implementation."
